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...THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INCREASES FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will track east across
northern Mexico late Friday night arriving in west Texas and
southeast New Mexico early Saturday morning. There is the usual
uncertainty with the track of the Sergio`s remnants, however the
forecast models have come to a consensus taking the track
generally along a line from 50 miles south of El Paso at 4 AM CDT
to near Wink to near to Big Spring by 1 PM CDT Saturday. Rainfall
is expected to mostly occur along and north of Interstate 10, but
the best chance is along and near the Interstate 20 corridor. We
are confident that it will rain and amounts up to one and one half
inch are possible, but most areas will receive less than one
inch. There is a 7 out of 10 chance that areas along and near the
Interstate 20 corridor will receive one half inch of rain and a 2
out 10 chance that these same areas will receive one inch of rain.
Recent rainfall across the area, especially the Permian Basin,
has left the soil mostly saturated and runoff could be generated
quickly resulting in localized flooding and flash flooding. One
factor that limits flooding threat is the fast moving nature of
the tropical remnants.
Additional rainfall and flooding concerns could be enhanced by
rainfall that may develop along a strong cold front that is
forecast to pass through the area Sunday. Rainfall could extend
into Monday morning in the favored areas of the east and southern
Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.
Residents and travelers through southeast New Mexico, the Permian
Basin, and the Trans Pecos are urged to stay tuned to the latest
forecasts and weather statements at www.weather.gov/maf as this
weather scenario evolves.